Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing17/29, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing20 CAR, 75 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing20/42, 248 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- J.J. McCarthyRushing5 CAR, 48 YDS
- Jalen NailorReceiving5 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:23Jalen Nailor 10 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–19
- Q410:40Mark Andrews 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Pass to Rashod Bateman for Two-Point Conversion)27–13
- Q32:16Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal19–13
- Q38:02Justice Hill 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)19–10
- Q310:19Tyler Loop 22 Yd Field Goal12–10
- Q20:02Tyler Loop 30 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q21:11Tyler Loop 28 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q210:56Will Reichard 49 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q14:25Tyler Loop 44 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:46Aaron Jones Sr. 4 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:46Aaron Jones Sr. 4 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)BAL 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 33% → 51% +18MIN 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q20:02Tyler Loop 30 Yd Field GoalBAL 9 – 10 MIN · BAL 49% → 59% +11BAL 49% → 59%+11 pts
- Q310:19Tyler Loop 22 Yd Field GoalBAL 12 – 10 MIN · BAL 58% → 69% +11BAL 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q38:02Justice Hill 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 19 – 10 MIN · BAL 69% → 88% +20BAL 69% → 88%+20 pts
- Q410:40Mark Andrews 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Pass to Rashod Bateman for Two-Point Conversion)BAL 27 – 13 MIN · BAL 86% → 99% +13BAL 86% → 99%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -4.5
- ML BAL -230 / MIN +195
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -5.5
- BAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 68.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -207
- MIN +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 27.0 – 22.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +33 | −90 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +137 Elo | BAL 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 67.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 22.818th of 32 |
| 24th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 23.320th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.8 | Margin | −0.517th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.0823rd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2915th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–226th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321539 | Opponent Elo | 150416th of 32 |
| 9th of 321606 | Elo rating | 155512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.