Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing17/32, 167 YDS, 2 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing22 CAR, 75 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing6/11, 54 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing21 CAR, 83 YDS
- Breece HallReceiving1 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:57Andre Szmyt 29 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q46:13Nick Folk 37 Yd Field Goal17–27
- Q414:12Breece Hall 42 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)17–24
- Q20:00Andre Szmyt 45 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q23:51Nick Folk 26 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q210:34Jerry Jeudy 22 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–14
- Q15:45Isaiah Williams 74 Yd Punt Return (Nick Folk Kick)7–14
- Q16:21Kene Nwangwu 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q16:34David Njoku 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:34David Njoku 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 7 – 0 NYJ · CLE 53% → 71% +18CLE 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q16:21Kene Nwangwu 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Nick Folk Kick)CLE 7 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 29% → 47% +18NYJ 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q15:45Isaiah Williams 74 Yd Punt Return (Nick Folk Kick)CLE 7 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 47% → 65% +19NYJ 47% → 65%+19 pts
- Q210:34Jerry Jeudy 22 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 14 – 14 NYJ · CLE 32% → 53% +21CLE 32% → 53%+21 pts
- Q414:12Breece Hall 42 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)CLE 17 – 24 NYJ · NYJ 48% → 80% +32NYJ 48% → 80%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -130 / NYJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1
- CLE 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -116
- NYJ +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 20.0 – 17.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −25 | +7 | CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +21 Elo | NYJ 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 53.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.8 | Points scored | 21.024th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 27.627th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.3 | Margin | −6.626th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.12 | Yards per play | 4.9127th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4921st of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 0–431st of 32 |
| 6th of 321534 | Opponent Elo | 151313th of 32 |
| 27th of 321382 | Elo rating | 133430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.