New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing21/32, 244 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallRushing18 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyler JohnsonReceiving3 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing21/34, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- Samaje PerineRushing9 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving12 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:54Mason Taylor 4 Yd pass from Breece Hall (Nick Folk Kick)39–38
- Q47:52Breece Hall 27 Yd Rush (Justin Fields Pass to Isaiah Davis for Two-Point Conversion)32–38
- Q410:21Chase Brown 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)24–38
- Q414:17Breece Hall 5 Yd Rush (Justin Fields Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–31
- Q32:34Samaje Perine 32 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)16–31
- Q36:12Nick Folk 24 Yd Field Goal16–24
- Q20:00Nick Folk 25 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q21:15Chase Brown 19 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)10–24
- Q25:18Tyler Johnson 15 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)10–17
- Q210:45Tee Higgins 44 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)3–17
- Q212:12Nick Folk 46 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:35Joe Flacco 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)0–10
- Q110:14Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:35Joe Flacco 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)NYJ 0 – 10 CIN · CIN 75% → 87% +13CIN 75% → 87%+13 pts
- Q25:18Tyler Johnson 15 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 10 – 17 CIN · NYJ 6% → 17% +11NYJ 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q21:15Chase Brown 19 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)NYJ 10 – 24 CIN · CIN 83% → 94% +11CIN 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q414:17Breece Hall 5 Yd Rush (Justin Fields Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 24 – 31 CIN · NYJ 1% → 13% +11NYJ 1% → 13%+11 pts
- Q41:54Mason Taylor 4 Yd pass from Breece Hall (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 39 – 38 CIN · NYJ 1% → 60% +59NYJ 1% → 60%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -5.5
- ML NYJ +210 / CIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -6
- CIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 69.6%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -222
- NYJ +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.0 – 24.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1321 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | −48 | NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers · CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +144 Elo | CIN 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 67.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 68.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.4 | Points scored | 19.426th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.1 | Points allowed | 30.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.7 | Margin | −11.131st of 32 |
| 30th of 324.53 | Yards per play | 4.6929th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0831st of 32 |
| 27th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 11th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15415th of 32 |
| 31st of 321321 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.