Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing10/18, 81 YDS, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing3 CAR, 21 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing14/22, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bhayshul TutenRushing15 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:02Travis Etienne Jr. 13 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)6–35
- Q411:38Tim Patrick 1 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)6–28
- Q37:50Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)6–21
- Q23:37Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)6–14
- Q28:15Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q10:00Bhayshul Tuten 4 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)3–7
- Q13:31Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:31Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 JAX · LAC 57% → 65% +8LAC 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q10:00Bhayshul Tuten 4 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)LAC 3 – 7 JAX · JAX 35% → 55% +20JAX 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q28:15Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 7 JAX · LAC 44% → 53% +9LAC 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q23:37Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)LAC 6 – 14 JAX · JAX 48% → 70% +23JAX 48% → 70%+23 pts
- Q37:50Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)LAC 6 – 21 JAX · JAX 76% → 92% +16JAX 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -145 / JAX +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 63.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -136
- JAX +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 22.5 – 20.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +6 | LAC: Justin Herbert · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +97 Elo | LAC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 57.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 22.818th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 24.420th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.7 | Margin | −1.721st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 4.9625th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5823rd of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 15228th of 32 |
| 10th of 321567 | Elo rating | 143323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.