Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing21/40, 240 YDS, 4 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing20 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 100 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing12/26, 139 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing10 CAR, 66 YDS
- Kimani VidalReceiving1 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT6:24Cameron Dicker 54 Yd Field Goal19–22
- Q40:08Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal19–19
- Q42:16Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q47:26Cameron Dicker 31 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q414:51Saquon Barkley 52 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)16–13
- Q33:22Jake Elliott 54 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q35:32Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:48Jake Elliott 30 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q24:55Cameron Dicker 45 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q13:22Jake Elliott 41 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q18:49Omarion Hampton 4 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q414:51Saquon Barkley 52 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 16 – 13 LAC · PHI 32% → 66% +34PHI 32% → 66%+34 pts
- Q47:26Cameron Dicker 31 Yd Field GoalPHI 16 – 16 LAC · LAC 29% → 49% +20LAC 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q42:16Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field GoalPHI 19 – 16 LAC · PHI 51% → 84% +33PHI 51% → 84%+33 pts
- Q40:08Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field GoalPHI 19 – 19 LAC · LAC <1% → 50% +50LAC <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT6:24Cameron Dicker 54 Yd Field GoalPHI 19 – 22 LAC · LAC 49% → 71% +22LAC 49% → 71%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -120 / LAC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -112
- LAC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.5 – 20.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +5 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +66 Elo | PHI 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 23.117th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 21.011th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.8 | Margin | +2.113th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 5.3914th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 4.978th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321535 | Opponent Elo | 144130th of 32 |
| 8th of 321621 | Elo rating | 152116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.