Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing17/36, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyle MonangaiRushing22 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- Cole KmetReceiving3 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing19/34, 230 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing13 CAR, 56 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving10 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:10A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–15
- Q46:19Cole Kmet 28 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)24–9
- Q412:49Kyle Monangai 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)17–9
- Q38:05A.J. Brown 33 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)10–9
- Q26:44Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q213:04Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q11:31D'Andre Swift 3 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:31D'Andre Swift 3 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 PHI · CHI 27% → 46% +19CHI 27% → 46%+19 pts
- Q26:44Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field GoalCHI 10 – 3 PHI · CHI 41% → 51% +10CHI 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q38:05A.J. Brown 33 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)CHI 10 – 9 PHI · PHI 39% → 63% +24PHI 39% → 63%+24 pts
- Q412:49Kyle Monangai 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 17 – 9 PHI · CHI 43% → 78% +35CHI 43% → 78%+35 pts
- Q46:19Cole Kmet 28 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 24 – 9 PHI · CHI 91% → >99% +9CHI 91% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7
- ML CHI +295 / PHI -355
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8
- PHI 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 75.7%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -308
- CHI +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 17.8 – 24.8 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +7 | CHI: Caleb Williams · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +197 Elo | PHI 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 75.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 75.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 23.218th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 20.58th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +2.711th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.73 | Yards per play | 5.1819th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.08 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3818th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 30th of 321461 | Opponent Elo | 15404th of 32 |
| 17th of 321506 | Elo rating | 16692nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.