Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing24/31, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenny GainwellRushing10 CAR, 92 YDS
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving4 REC, 36 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing19/35, 239 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyle MonangaiRushing12 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:27Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)28–31
- Q414:14Kyle Monangai 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)21–31
- Q38:29DJ Moore 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)21–24
- Q20:00Cairo Santos 47 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q21:19Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)21–14
- Q23:56Colston Loveland 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–14
- Q214:44Nick Herbig 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Chris Boswell Kick)14–7
- Q10:30DK Metcalf 6 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q18:28DJ Moore 5 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:56Colston Loveland 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)PIT 14 – 14 CHI · CHI 32% → 55% +23CHI 32% → 55%+23 pts
- Q21:19Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 21 – 14 CHI · PIT 45% → 69% +24PIT 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q38:29DJ Moore 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)PIT 21 – 24 CHI · CHI 38% → 66% +27CHI 38% → 66%+27 pts
- Q414:14Kyle Monangai 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)PIT 21 – 31 CHI · CHI 68% → 91% +24CHI 68% → 91%+24 pts
- Q46:27Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 28 – 31 CHI · PIT 2% → 27% +24PIT 2% → 27%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML PIT +120 / CHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- CHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 22.5 – 25.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −26 | +7 | PIT: Mason Rudolph, usually Aaron Rodgers · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +51 Elo | CHI 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 56.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 25.88th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 26.426th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.619th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.778th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2130th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 146628th of 32 |
| 17th of 321510 | Elo rating | 149218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.