Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing16/32, 193 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing21 CAR, 90 YDS
- Cole KmetReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing16/32, 150 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing16 CAR, 70 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving5 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal19–17
- Q40:50Jordan Addison 15 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)16–17
- Q412:33Jordan Mason 16 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)16–10
- Q32:11Cairo Santos 33 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q310:31Cairo Santos 54 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q22:00Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q24:55Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–3
- Q12:10Will Reichard 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:55Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 3 MIN · CHI 34% → 57% +23CHI 34% → 57%+23 pts
- Q22:00Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field GoalCHI 10 – 3 MIN · CHI 58% → 67% +10CHI 58% → 67%+10 pts
- Q412:33Jordan Mason 16 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)CHI 16 – 10 MIN · MIN 5% → 23% +19MIN 5% → 23%+19 pts
- Q40:50Jordan Addison 15 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)CHI 16 – 17 MIN · MIN <1% → 71% +71MIN <1% → 71%+71 pts
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field GoalCHI 19 – 17 MIN · CHI 0% → 100% +100CHI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3
- ML CHI +135 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 22.3 – 25.3 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −82 | CHI: Caleb Williams · MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.6 | Points scored | 22.321st of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.4 | Points allowed | 23.718th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −1.318th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.94 | Yards per play | 5.1922nd of 32 |
| 31st of 326.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2414th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 32 |
| 18th of 321478 | Elo rating | 153915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.