Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing20/34, 280 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyle MonangaiRushing26 CAR, 176 YDS
- Colston LovelandReceiving6 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing31/47, 470 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Chase BrownRushing11 CAR, 37 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving7 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:17Colston Loveland 58 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)47–42
- Q40:54Andrei Iosivas 9 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)41–42
- Q41:43Noah Fant 23 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Joe Flacco Pass to Tee Higgins for Two-Point Conversion)41–35
- Q44:53DJ Moore 17 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)41–27
- Q412:03Cairo Santos 36 Yd Field Goal34–27
- Q31:57Brittain Brown 22 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)31–27
- Q35:19Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)24–27
- Q38:11Colston Loveland 5 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)24–20
- Q21:12Tee Higgins 44 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)17–20
- Q21:29Cairo Santos 24 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q25:47Evan McPherson 33 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q214:54Olamide Zaccheaus 15 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–10
- Q15:41Evan McPherson 41 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q18:44Caleb Williams 2 Yd pass from DJ Moore (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q114:49Charlie Jones 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:11Colston Loveland 5 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 24 – 20 CIN · CHI 44% → 71% +27CHI 44% → 71%+27 pts
- Q35:19Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)CHI 24 – 27 CIN · CIN 29% → 58% +29CIN 29% → 58%+29 pts
- Q31:57Brittain Brown 22 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 31 – 27 CIN · CHI 41% → 72% +32CHI 41% → 72%+32 pts
- Q40:54Andrei Iosivas 9 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)CHI 41 – 42 CIN · CIN <1% → 69% +69CIN <1% → 69%+69 pts
- Q40:17Colston Loveland 58 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 47 – 42 CIN · CHI 18% → >99% +82CHI 18% → >99%+82 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML CHI -165 / CIN +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -1
- CHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 47.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -144
- CIN +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 27.0 – 24.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −39 | CHI: Caleb Williams · CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 59.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 21.821st of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.4 | Points allowed | 31.632nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.4 | Margin | −9.929th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.63 | Yards per play | 4.9725th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.17 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2332nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 151611th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321443 | Elo rating | 147020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.