New York Giants at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing19/29, 242 YDS
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 71 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 89 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing20/36, 220 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 80 YDS
- Rome OdunzeReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Caleb Williams 17 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)20–24
- Q43:56Rome Odunze 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)20–17
- Q410:19Younghoe Koo 19 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q30:34Cairo Santos 22 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q312:17Jaxson Dart 24 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–7
- Q20:03Younghoe Koo 32 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q213:06Jaxson Dart 3 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–7
- Q15:40Kyle Monangai 8 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:40Kyle Monangai 8 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)NYG 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 66% → 81% +15CHI 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q213:06Jaxson Dart 3 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)NYG 7 – 7 CHI · NYG 19% → 35% +17NYG 19% → 35%+17 pts
- Q312:17Jaxson Dart 24 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)NYG 17 – 7 CHI · NYG 49% → 74% +24NYG 49% → 74%+24 pts
- Q43:56Rome Odunze 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)NYG 20 – 17 CHI · CHI <1% → 27% +26CHI <1% → 27%+26 pts
- Q41:47Caleb Williams 17 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)NYG 20 – 24 CHI · CHI 15% → 94% +78CHI 15% → 94%+78 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML NYG +190 / CHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6
- CHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 70.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CHI -204
- NYG +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.0 – 24.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | +6 | NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +154 Elo | CHI 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 69.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 67.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.9 | Points scored | 26.96th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.7 | Points allowed | 28.429th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.8 | Margin | −1.519th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.09 | Yards per play | 5.924th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.86 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3731st of 32 |
| 30th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 1st of 321551 | Opponent Elo | 147525th of 32 |
| 28th of 321368 | Elo rating | 146720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.