San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Mac JonesPassing19/24, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing28 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyReceiving5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing24/33, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaxson DartRushing8 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Darius SlaytonReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:21Gunner Olszewski 24 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Graham Gano Kick)34–24
- Q44:13Christian McCaffrey 3 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)34–17
- Q47:52Jaxson Dart 6 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)27–17
- Q411:35Brian Robinson Jr. 18 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)27–10
- Q36:42Graham Gano 22 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q39:55Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q21:55Eddy Pineiro 54 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q213:08Jauan Jennings 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–7
- Q14:16Christian McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q110:50Theo Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Graham Gano Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Theo Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Graham Gano Kick)SF 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 44% → 62% +18NYG 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q14:16Christian McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 7 – 7 NYG · SF 36% → 56% +19SF 36% → 56%+19 pts
- Q213:08Jauan Jennings 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 14 – 7 NYG · SF 55% → 74% +19SF 55% → 74%+19 pts
- Q21:55Eddy Pineiro 54 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 7 NYG · SF 76% → 83% +7SF 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q411:35Brian Robinson Jr. 18 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 27 – 10 NYG · SF 93% → >99% +6SF 93% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -2.5
- ML SF -140 / NYG +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -1.5
- SF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SF: Elo 54.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -128
- NYG +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 25.0 – 22.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −88 | −22 | SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy · NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +32 Elo | SF 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 21.622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.5 | Points allowed | 26.926th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −5.325th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 5.0724th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.47 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8626th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 20th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15611st of 32 |
| 13th of 321528 | Elo rating | 139526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–0 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.