Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing23/40, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing18 CAR, 99 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving3 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing12/16, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing10 CAR, 62 YDS
- Kenny GainwellReceiving7 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:22James Pierre 34 Yd Fumble Recovery (Chris Boswell Kick)12–34
- Q43:40Kenneth Gainwell 5 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)12–27
- Q49:41Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal12–20
- Q30:37Kyle Dugger 73 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)9–20
- Q34:16Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q311:53Evan McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:10Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q15:10Tee Higgins 28 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–7
- Q110:12Kenneth Gainwell 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:12Kenneth Gainwell 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 68% → 83% +14PIT 68% → 83%+14 pts
- Q15:10Tee Higgins 28 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)CIN 6 – 7 PIT · CIN 17% → 30% +13CIN 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q311:53Evan McPherson 43 Yd Field GoalCIN 9 – 10 PIT · CIN 24% → 33% +10CIN 24% → 33%+10 pts
- Q34:16Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field GoalCIN 9 – 13 PIT · PIT 65% → 77% +11PIT 65% → 77%+11 pts
- Q30:37Kyle Dugger 73 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 9 – 20 PIT · PIT 77% → 95% +17PIT 77% → 95%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -5.5
- ML CIN +215 / PIT -260
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4.5
- PIT 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 65.9%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -225
- CIN +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 21.0 – 26.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −27 | +12 | CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +114 Elo | PIT 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 67.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 69.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 23.616th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3233.3 | Points allowed | 24.420th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.3 | Margin | −0.915th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 5.1024th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4420th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 19th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 151214th of 32 |
| 21st of 321446 | Elo rating | 148517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.