Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing31/38, 212 YDS
- RJ HarveyRushing17 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 62 YDS
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing13/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Ashton JeantyRushing10 CAR, 30 YDS
- Jack BechReceiving6 REC, 50 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Daniel Carlson 46 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q42:17Shedrick Jackson 25 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–14
- Q43:56Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q34:05RJ Harvey 3 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)21–7
- Q26:29Marvin Mims Jr. 48 Yd Punt Return (Wil Lutz Kick)14–7
- Q10:00Brock Bowers 15 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q16:06Bo Nix 8 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:06Bo Nix 8 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 LV · DEN 78% → 90% +11DEN 78% → 90%+11 pts
- Q10:00Brock Bowers 15 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 7 – 7 LV · LV 11% → 23% +12LV 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q26:29Marvin Mims Jr. 48 Yd Punt Return (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 7 LV · DEN 75% → 89% +14DEN 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q34:05RJ Harvey 3 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 21 – 7 LV · DEN 90% → 98% +8DEN 90% → 98%+8 pts
- Q42:17Shedrick Jackson 25 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 24 – 14 LV · LV <1% → <1% +0LV <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -470 / LV +360
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -15
- DEN 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 89.8%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -404
- LV +404 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 24.5 – 16.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1671 | 1239 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +23 | DEN: Bo Nix · LV: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +377 Elo | DEN 89.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 86.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 80.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 14.932nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.2 | Points allowed | 25.726th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.5 | Margin | −10.831st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 4.5130th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1912th of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–1 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
| 30th of 321446 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 1st of 321671 | Elo rating | 123932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 LV in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.