Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing29/45, 321 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RJ HarveyRushing13 CAR, 35 YDS, 2 TD
- Evan EngramReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing28/50, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Marcus MariotaRushing10 CAR, 55 YDS
- Zach ErtzReceiving10 REC, 106 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–26
- OT6:59RJ Harvey 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)27–20
- Q40:00Jake Moody 32 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q412:37Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q33:59RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)20–14
- Q39:58Treylon Burks 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Moody Kick)13–14
- Q20:23Courtland Sutton 11 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)13–7
- Q22:21Chris Rodriguez Jr. 8 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)6–7
- Q27:51Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q110:28Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:58Treylon Burks 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Moody Kick)DEN 13 – 14 WSH · WSH 17% → 39% +22WSH 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q33:59RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 20 – 14 WSH · DEN 58% → 84% +26DEN 58% → 84%+26 pts
- Q40:00Jake Moody 32 Yd Field GoalDEN 20 – 20 WSH · WSH 0% → 41% +41WSH 0% → 41%+41 pts
- OT6:59RJ Harvey 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 27 – 20 WSH · DEN 58% → 93% +35DEN 58% → 93%+35 pts
- OT2:47Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DEN 27 – 26 WSH · WSH 2% → 34% +32WSH 2% → 34%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -270 / WSH +230
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 79.4%, market 70.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -249
- WSH +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 25.0 – 18.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1668 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −34 | DEN: Bo Nix · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +234 Elo | DEN 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 21.523rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 26.928th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.9 | Margin | −5.525th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 5.6510th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.40 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3232nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321459 | Opponent Elo | 150515th of 32 |
| 1st of 321668 | Elo rating | 143523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.