Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing20/30, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 79 YDS
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving7 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing14/20, 171 YDS
- De'Von AchaneRushing21 CAR, 120 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving3 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT7:33Riley Patterson 29 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q412:36Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)13–13
- Q311:24Deebo Samuel 20 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Gay Kick)13–6
- Q20:00Matt Gay 30 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q211:27Riley Patterson 39 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q12:36Matt Gay 26 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:35Riley Patterson 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:27Riley Patterson 39 Yd Field GoalWSH 3 – 6 MIA · MIA 55% → 63% +9MIA 55% → 63%+9 pts
- Q20:00Matt Gay 30 Yd Field GoalWSH 6 – 6 MIA · WSH 36% → 46% +10WSH 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q311:24Deebo Samuel 20 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 13 – 6 MIA · WSH 46% → 72% +25WSH 46% → 72%+25 pts
- Q412:36Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)WSH 13 – 13 MIA · MIA 18% → 53% +34MIA 18% → 53%+34 pts
- OT7:33Riley Patterson 29 Yd Field GoalWSH 13 – 16 MIA · MIA 52% → 72% +20MIA 52% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML WSH +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.0 – 24.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | −40 | +13 | WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +58 Elo | MIA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3222.3 | Points scored | 21.025th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.0 | Points allowed | 25.624th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.7 | Margin | −4.624th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.62 | Yards per play | 5.3516th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8727th of 32 |
| 16th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 32 |
| 21st of 321449 | Elo rating | 145420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–6 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.