Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing24/40, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing12 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Jayden ReedReceiving5 REC, 55 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing23/34, 302 YDS, 4 TD
- RJ HarveyRushing19 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving7 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:27RJ Harvey 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)26–34
- Q410:55Brandon McManus 37 Yd Field Goal26–27
- Q30:00Troy Franklin 23 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–27
- Q39:07Courtland Sutton 14 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)23–21
- Q313:59Josh Jacobs 40 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)23–14
- Q20:02Brandon McManus 35 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q21:56Lil'Jordan Humphrey 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)13–14
- Q24:29Josh Jacobs 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)13–7
- Q28:19Michael Bandy 20 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)6–7
- Q214:11Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q17:02Brandon McManus 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:29Josh Jacobs 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 13 – 7 DEN · GB 48% → 70% +22GB 48% → 70%+22 pts
- Q21:56Lil'Jordan Humphrey 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)GB 13 – 14 DEN · DEN 29% → 52% +23DEN 29% → 52%+23 pts
- Q39:07Courtland Sutton 14 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)GB 23 – 21 DEN · DEN 18% → 41% +23DEN 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q30:00Troy Franklin 23 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)GB 23 – 27 DEN · DEN 39% → 68% +29DEN 39% → 68%+29 pts
- Q47:27RJ Harvey 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)GB 26 – 34 DEN · DEN 56% → 92% +36DEN 56% → 92%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -1.5
- ML GB -122 / DEN +102
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- GB 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- GB: Elo 43.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- GB -108
- DEN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 22.0 – 20.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1667 | 1676 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +4 | GB: Jordan Love · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +45 Elo | DEN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 51.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.8 | Points scored | 23.712th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 18.14th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.8 | Margin | +5.610th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.65 | Yards per play | 5.3415th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.68 | Yards allowed per play | 4.481st of 32 |
| 7th of 327–2–1 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1–1 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
| 25th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 142631st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321667 | Elo rating | 16761st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.