Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing19/35, 186 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 63 YDS
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing17/25, 234 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing20 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving4 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:32Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)21–28
- Q48:00Colston Loveland 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)21–21
- Q33:15Cairo Santos 41 Yd Field Goal14–21
- Q36:10Christian Watson 41 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)11–21
- Q38:20Olamide Zaccheaus 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Kyle Monangai Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q20:38Bo Melton 45 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)3–14
- Q21:14Cairo Santos 33 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q29:19Christian Watson 23 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:19Christian Watson 23 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)CHI 0 – 7 GB · GB 68% → 84% +16GB 68% → 84%+16 pts
- Q38:20Olamide Zaccheaus 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Kyle Monangai Run for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 11 – 14 GB · CHI 7% → 25% +18CHI 7% → 25%+18 pts
- Q36:10Christian Watson 41 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)CHI 11 – 21 GB · GB 75% → 92% +17GB 75% → 92%+17 pts
- Q48:00Colston Loveland 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 21 – 21 GB · CHI 8% → 42% +34CHI 8% → 42%+34 pts
- Q43:32Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)CHI 21 – 28 GB · GB 56% → 97% +42GB 56% → 97%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML CHI +245 / GB -305
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -5
- GB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- GB: Elo 67.9%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- GB -256
- CHI +256 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +4 | CHI: Caleb Williams · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +130 Elo | GB 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 69.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 71.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 24.511th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 18.86th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +5.78th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 5.5910th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.09 | Yards allowed per play | 4.685th of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–3–18th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
| 26th of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 148225th of 32 |
| 12th of 321554 | Elo rating | 16513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 GB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.