Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing13/24, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- Emanuel WilsonRushing11 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing19/29, 201 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing19 CAR, 88 YDS
- Isaiah HodginsReceiving5 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:02Christian Watson 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Emanuel Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)27–20
- Q47:22Jameis Winston 1 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)19–20
- Q311:40Josh Whyle 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik PAT Failed)19–13
- Q21:11Devin Singletary 2 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo PAT Failed)13–13
- Q27:39Emanuel Wilson 11 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)13–7
- Q213:54Christian Watson 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Lucas Havrisik PAT Failed)6–7
- Q110:35Devin Singletary 5 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:54Christian Watson 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Lucas Havrisik PAT Failed)GB 6 – 7 NYG · GB 54% → 71% +17GB 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q27:39Emanuel Wilson 11 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)GB 13 – 7 NYG · GB 69% → 85% +16GB 69% → 85%+16 pts
- Q311:40Josh Whyle 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik PAT Failed)GB 19 – 13 NYG · GB 68% → 85% +17GB 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q47:22Jameis Winston 1 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)GB 19 – 20 NYG · NYG 9% → 47% +38NYG 9% → 47%+38 pts
- Q44:02Christian Watson 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Emanuel Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)GB 27 – 20 NYG · GB 48% → 97% +49GB 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- GB -7.5
- ML GB -400 / NYG +300
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -9.5
- GB 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- GB: Elo 79.6%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- GB -325
- NYG +325 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 25.0 – 17.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −31 | GB: Jordan Love · NYG: Jameis Winston, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +237 Elo | GB 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 78.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 76.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 21.723rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 27.328th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.1 | Margin | −5.626th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 5.2121st of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8828th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1–1 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 24th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 15491st of 32 |
| 8th of 321595 | Elo rating | 135729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 0–1 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.