Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing18/30, 234 YDS, 4 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing17 CAR, 83 YDS
- Dontayvion WicksReceiving6 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing20/26, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing20 CAR, 68 YDS
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving7 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:59Jake Bates 31 Yd Field Goal31–24
- Q31:44Dontayvion Wicks 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)31–21
- Q37:25Isaac TeSlaa 17 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)24–21
- Q310:31Christian Watson 51 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)24–14
- Q20:25Jameson Williams 22 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–14
- Q22:12Romeo Doubs 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)17–7
- Q27:54David Montgomery 3 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)10–7
- Q214:19Dontayvion Wicks 22 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)10–0
- Q19:12Brandon McManus 45 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:12Romeo Doubs 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 17 – 7 DET · GB 53% → 75% +22GB 53% → 75%+22 pts
- Q20:25Jameson Williams 22 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)GB 17 – 14 DET · DET 24% → 47% +23DET 24% → 47%+23 pts
- Q310:31Christian Watson 51 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 24 – 14 DET · GB 55% → 79% +24GB 55% → 79%+24 pts
- Q37:25Isaac TeSlaa 17 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)GB 24 – 21 DET · DET 19% → 44% +25DET 19% → 44%+25 pts
- Q31:44Dontayvion Wicks 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 31 – 21 DET · GB 59% → 85% +27GB 59% → 85%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3
- ML GB +144 / DET -166
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DET: Elo 57.6%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -151
- GB +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 22.3 – 25.3 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | GB: Jordan Love · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.9 | Points scored | 29.62nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.4 | Points allowed | 22.112th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +7.55th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 6.133rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.119th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–3–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1–1 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Opponent Elo | 151512th of 32 |
| 8th of 321621 | Elo rating | 16415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | — | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.