Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing12/19, 87 YDS, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing8 CAR, 42 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 48 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing14/21, 139 YDS
- Emanuel WilsonRushing28 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving5 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:36Brandon McManus 40 Yd Field Goal6–23
- Q412:13Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal6–20
- Q310:53Emanuel Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)6–17
- Q20:10Will Reichard 59 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q22:25Brandon McManus 32 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q19:15Emanuel Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)3–7
- Q112:53Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:53Will Reichard 52 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 0 GB · MIN 28% → 35% +7MIN 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q19:15Emanuel Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)MIN 3 – 7 GB · GB 64% → 79% +15GB 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q22:25Brandon McManus 32 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 10 GB · GB 78% → 85% +7GB 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q20:10Will Reichard 59 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 10 GB · MIN 15% → 22% +7MIN 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q310:53Emanuel Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)MIN 6 – 17 GB · GB 78% → 92% +15GB 78% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML MIN +240 / GB -290
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -8
- GB 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- GB: Elo 75.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- GB -257
- MIN +257 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 17.5 – 24.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −78 | +4 | MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +197 Elo | GB 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 74.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 72.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.8 | Points scored | 24.013th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 19.67th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.4 | Margin | +4.410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.16 | Yards per play | 5.6811th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 4.673rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
| 14th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 146927th of 32 |
| 14th of 321525 | Elo rating | 16048th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 GB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.