New York Giants at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing18/36, 366 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 62 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving9 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing28/42, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT9:42Jahmyr Gibbs 69 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)27–34
- Q40:28Jake Bates 59 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q410:50Jahmyr Gibbs 49 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)27–24
- Q412:16Jameis Winston 33 Yd pass from Gunner Olszewski (Younghoe Koo Kick)27–17
- Q20:00Jake Bates 37 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q20:38Younghoe Koo 44 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q22:16Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–14
- Q28:21Isaiah Hodgins 12 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–7
- Q211:41Amon-Ra St. Brown 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)10–7
- Q10:00Younghoe Koo 21 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:56Wan'Dale Robinson 39 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:16Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)NYG 17 – 14 DET · DET 51% → 74% +22DET 51% → 74%+22 pts
- Q412:16Jameis Winston 33 Yd pass from Gunner Olszewski (Younghoe Koo Kick)NYG 27 – 17 DET · NYG 45% → 80% +35NYG 45% → 80%+35 pts
- Q410:50Jahmyr Gibbs 49 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)NYG 27 – 24 DET · DET 17% → 53% +36DET 17% → 53%+36 pts
- Q40:28Jake Bates 59 Yd Field GoalNYG 27 – 27 DET · DET 2% → 54% +52DET 2% → 54%+52 pts
- OT9:42Jahmyr Gibbs 69 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)NYG 27 – 34 DET · DET 69% → 94% +26DET 69% → 94%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- DET -14.5
- ML NYG +750 / DET -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -14
- DET 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 88.3%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -790
- NYG +790 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 18.0 – 32.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −27 | — | NYG: Jameis Winston, usually Daniel Jones · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +351 Elo | DET 88.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 87.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3221.5 | Points scored | 29.24th of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 21.610th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.7 | Margin | +7.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.984th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 4.906th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–6 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 32 |
| 1st of 321559 | Opponent Elo | 15317th of 32 |
| 29th of 321347 | Elo rating | 16364th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.