Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing26/38, 182 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RJ HarveyRushing14 CAR, 43 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving4 REC, 40 YDS
Chiefs- Chris OladokunPassing13/22, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing7 CAR, 38 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving5 REC, 36 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:45RJ Harvey 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)20–13
- Q48:03Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q31:55Bo Nix 9 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)13–10
- Q311:42Harrison Butker 53 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:19Wil Lutz 30 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q212:49Brashard Smith 5 Yd pass from Chris Oladokun (Harrison Butker Kick)3–7
- Q16:58Wil Lutz 27 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:49Brashard Smith 5 Yd pass from Chris Oladokun (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 3 – 7 KC · KC 11% → 24% +13KC 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q311:42Harrison Butker 53 Yd Field GoalDEN 6 – 10 KC · KC 24% → 34% +10KC 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:55Bo Nix 9 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 13 – 10 KC · DEN 56% → 84% +28DEN 56% → 84%+28 pts
- Q48:03Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field GoalDEN 13 – 13 KC · KC 17% → 33% +16KC 17% → 33%+16 pts
- Q41:45RJ Harvey 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 20 – 13 KC · DEN 58% → >99% +42DEN 58% → >99%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -13.5
- ML DEN -1200 / KC +750
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.3%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -754
- KC +754 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 25.5 – 12.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | −156 | DEN: Bo Nix · KC: Chris Oladokun, usually Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +267 Elo | DEN 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 88.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.1 | Points scored | 22.520th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 19.64th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+4.5 | Margin | +2.914th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 5.3816th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3716th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 32 |
| 31st of 321447 | Opponent Elo | 150614th of 32 |
| 5th of 321646 | Elo rating | 150417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.