Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/36, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 50 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving6 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing28/47, 352 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RJ HarveyRushing7 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q410:44Wil Lutz 21 Yd Field Goal34–20
- Q413:36Cam Little 26 Yd Field Goal34–17
- Q33:56Travis Etienne Jr. 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)31–17
- Q37:44Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)24–17
- Q313:01RJ Harvey 38 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)17–17
- Q20:00Cam Little 47 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q24:33Brenton Strange 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)14–10
- Q29:10Wil Lutz 54 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q212:46Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–7
- Q10:07Parker Washington 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:07Parker Washington 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 DEN · JAX 40% → 60% +20JAX 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q212:46Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)JAX 7 – 7 DEN · DEN 40% → 60% +21DEN 40% → 60%+21 pts
- Q24:33Brenton Strange 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 14 – 10 DEN · JAX 32% → 54% +22JAX 32% → 54%+22 pts
- Q313:01RJ Harvey 38 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)JAX 17 – 17 DEN · DEN 33% → 58% +25DEN 33% → 58%+25 pts
- Q37:44Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 24 – 17 DEN · JAX 43% → 70% +28JAX 43% → 70%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML JAX +145 / DEN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 72.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -162
- JAX +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.5 – 25.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +5 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +171 Elo | DEN 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 71.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 61.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.9 | Points scored | 24.411th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 18.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.0 | Margin | +5.89th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.3914th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 4.571st of 32 |
| 8th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 5th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 143731st of 32 |
| 14th of 321560 | Elo rating | 16991st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.