Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Riley LeonardPassing18/29, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving5 REC, 80 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing17/30, 244 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving3 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:51Riley Leonard 6 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–36
- Q44:41Cam Little 48 Yd Field Goal13–36
- Q46:57Riley Leonard Sacked by Josh Hines-Allen For 9 Yd Loss for Safety13–33
- Q414:05Cam Little 35 Yd Field Goal13–31
- Q39:57Blake Grupe 36 Yd Field Goal13–28
- Q20:07Tim Patrick 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–28
- Q24:54Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q212:52Travis Etienne Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–21
- Q12:27Jakobi Meyers 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–14
- Q14:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q110:39Travis Etienne Jr. 3 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:39Travis Etienne Jr. 3 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 46% → 63% +18JAX 46% → 63%+18 pts
- Q14:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)IND 7 – 7 JAX · IND 35% → 54% +19IND 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q12:27Jakobi Meyers 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 7 – 14 JAX · JAX 46% → 65% +19JAX 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q212:52Travis Etienne Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)IND 7 – 21 JAX · JAX 66% → 83% +16JAX 66% → 83%+16 pts
- Q20:07Tim Patrick 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 10 – 28 JAX · JAX 81% → 94% +12JAX 81% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -135 / JAX +114
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -0.5
- IND 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- IND: Elo 48.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -120
- JAX +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 23.5 – 21.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +6 | IND: Daniel Jones · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +12 Elo | JAX 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 51.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 54.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.8 | Points scored | 24.311th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 21.112th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.0 | Margin | +3.311th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.26 | Yards per play | 5.0326th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1210th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 14th of 321531 | Elo rating | 151716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–3 JAX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.