Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing16/27, 229 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 28 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing24/38, 141 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing10 CAR, 60 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving4 REC, 29 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q36:45Bhayshul Tuten 2 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)25–3
- Q20:00Cam Little 45 Yd Field Goal18–3
- Q214:54Brenton Strange 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Trevor Lawrence Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–3
- Q11:04Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–3
- Q15:06Joey Slye 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:06Joey Slye 28 Yd Field GoalJAX 0 – 3 TEN · TEN 30% → 38% +8TEN 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q11:04Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 3 TEN · JAX 61% → 78% +17JAX 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q214:54Brenton Strange 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Trevor Lawrence Run for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 15 – 3 TEN · JAX 78% → 91% +13JAX 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q20:00Cam Little 45 Yd Field GoalJAX 18 – 3 TEN · JAX 93% → 96% +3JAX 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q36:45Bhayshul Tuten 2 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 25 – 3 TEN · JAX 97% → >99% +2JAX 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -5.5
- ML JAX -275 / TEN +225
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -10
- JAX 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- JAX: Elo 80.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- JAX -248
- TEN +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 24.0 – 18.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1241 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −14 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +246 Elo | JAX 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 78.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 71.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 15.230th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 27.529th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −12.432nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.06 | Yards per play | 4.2431st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8326th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 0–632nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 15442nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321504 | Elo rating | 124132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 3–1 TEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.