Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/30, 256 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 86 YDS
- Brenton StrangeReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing33/49, 317 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael CarterRushing5 CAR, 28 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving10 REC, 118 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT7:46Cam Little 52 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q40:03Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field Goal24–24
- Q43:47Parker Washington 9 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)24–21
- Q47:12Greg Dortch 39 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)17–21
- Q38:10Jakobi Meyers 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)17–14
- Q27:31Bam Knight 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)10–14
- Q212:55Cam Little 52 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q12:26Walter Nolen III 7 Yd Fumble Recovery (Chad Ryland Kick)7–7
- Q17:10Travis Etienne Jr. 15 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:31Bam Knight 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)JAX 10 – 14 ARI · ARI 37% → 59% +22ARI 37% → 59%+22 pts
- Q38:10Jakobi Meyers 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 17 – 14 ARI · JAX 37% → 65% +28JAX 37% → 65%+28 pts
- Q47:12Greg Dortch 39 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)JAX 17 – 21 ARI · ARI 28% → 75% +47ARI 28% → 75%+47 pts
- Q43:47Parker Washington 9 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 24 – 21 ARI · JAX 17% → 78% +62JAX 17% → 78%+62 pts
- Q40:03Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field GoalJAX 24 – 24 ARI · ARI <1% → 50% +50ARI <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -1.5
- ML JAX -130 / ARI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -2
- JAX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- JAX: Elo 57.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- JAX -120
- ARI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 24.0 – 22.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −31 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +55 Elo | JAX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 54.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 22.419th of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 25.625th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −3.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 324.96 | Yards per play | 5.1322nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3516th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 8th of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 150517th of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 143522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.