Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing22/44, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- Emari DemercadoRushing4 CAR, 64 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving9 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing10/12, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing14 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:31Jason Myers 34 Yd Field Goal22–44
- Q49:50Marvin Harrison Jr. 9 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)22–41
- Q411:54Jason Myers 32 Yd Field Goal15–41
- Q38:42Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)15–38
- Q21:37Jason Myers 46 Yd Field Goal7–38
- Q22:50Greg Dortch 4 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)7–35
- Q28:33Zach Charbonnet 6 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–35
- Q214:08DeMarcus Lawrence 22 Yd Fumble Recovery by Tyrice Knight For 22 Yd Loss (Jason Myers Kick)0–28
- Q11:23George Holani 9 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–21
- Q19:22DeMarcus Lawrence 34 Yd Fumble Recovery by Tyrice Knight For 34 Yd Loss (Jason Myers Kick)0–14
- Q110:55Jaxon Smith-Njigba 43 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Jaxon Smith-Njigba 43 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 75% → 87% +12SEA 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q19:22DeMarcus Lawrence 34 Yd Fumble Recovery by Tyrice Knight For 34 Yd Loss (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 0 – 14 SEA · SEA 87% → 94% +8SEA 87% → 94%+8 pts
- Q11:23George Holani 9 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 0 – 21 SEA · SEA 95% → 98% +4SEA 95% → 98%+4 pts
- Q214:08DeMarcus Lawrence 22 Yd Fumble Recovery by Tyrice Knight For 22 Yd Loss (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 0 – 28 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +1SEA 98% → >99%+1 pts
- Q38:42Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 15 – 38 SEA · ARI <1% → <1% +0ARI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7.5
- ML ARI +280 / SEA -340
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -11
- SEA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 83.4%, market 74.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -306
- ARI +306 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 18.5 – 26.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −46 | +36 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +281 Elo | SEA 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 81.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 75.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 28.94th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 18.85th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +10.13rd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.96 | Yards per play | 6.312nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 4.664th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
| 24th of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 32 |
| 19th of 321470 | Elo rating | 16335th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–5 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.