Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing16/26, 244 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing11 CAR, 71 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing28/42, 256 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam WardRushing6 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- Gunnar HelmReceiving6 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:43Chimere Dike 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)30–24
- Q31:18Cam Ward 6 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)30–17
- Q36:40Zach Charbonnet 5 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)30–10
- Q310:22Chimere Dike 90 Yd Punt Return (Joey Slye Kick)23–10
- Q313:19Jaxon Smith-Njigba 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)23–3
- Q20:00Jason Myers 36 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q24:44Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q211:02Jaxon Smith-Njigba 63 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)10–3
- Q12:14Jason Myers 47 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q15:51Joey Slye 22 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:51Joey Slye 22 Yd Field GoalSEA 0 – 3 TEN · TEN 19% → 25% +6TEN 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q12:14Jason Myers 47 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 3 TEN · SEA 74% → 80% +6SEA 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q211:02Jaxon Smith-Njigba 63 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 3 TEN · SEA 78% → 91% +12SEA 78% → 91%+12 pts
- Q24:44Jason Myers 30 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 3 TEN · SEA 90% → 94% +4SEA 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q313:19Jaxon Smith-Njigba 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 23 – 3 TEN · SEA 97% → >99% +3SEA 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -11.5
- ML SEA -650 / TEN +425
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -16
- SEA 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 90.9%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -482
- TEN +482 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 26.5 – 15.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1245 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +30 | −20 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +399 Elo | SEA 90.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 89.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 82.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 14.332nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.3 | Points allowed | 27.330th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.1 | Margin | −13.032nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.17 | Yards per play | 4.2331st of 32 |
| 4th of 324.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7026th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 0–532nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15393rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321631 | Elo rating | 124532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.