Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Chris OladokunPassing11/16, 111 YDS
- Isiah PachecoRushing8 CAR, 34 YDS
- Isiah PachecoReceiving6 REC, 41 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing21/28, 228 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing21 CAR, 102 YDS
- Elic AyomanorReceiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:44Joey Slye 27 Yd Field Goal9–26
- Q411:56Tyjae Spears 4 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)9–23
- Q33:00Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q310:32Chimere Dike 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)6–16
- Q20:06Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q21:37Chig Okonkwo 7 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)3–9
- Q27:40Harrison Butker 54 Yd Field Goal3–2
- Q213:06Jeffery Simmons Safety0–2
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:37Chig Okonkwo 7 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)KC 3 – 9 TEN · TEN 37% → 61% +24TEN 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q20:06Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field GoalKC 6 – 9 TEN · KC 39% → 49% +10KC 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q310:32Chimere Dike 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)KC 6 – 16 TEN · TEN 53% → 77% +24TEN 53% → 77%+24 pts
- Q33:00Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field GoalKC 9 – 16 TEN · KC 17% → 27% +10KC 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q411:56Tyjae Spears 4 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)KC 9 – 23 TEN · TEN 80% → 97% +17TEN 80% → 97%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -185 / TEN +154
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -8
- KC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.3 pts
- KC: Elo 76.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -174
- TEN +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 20.5 – 17.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1245 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −89 | −10 | KC: Gardner Minshew II, usually Patrick Mahomes · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +206 Elo | KC 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 76.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 16.131st of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 28.128th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.3 | Margin | −12.132nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 4.3331st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8327th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 0–732nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 15383rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321565 | Elo rating | 124531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.