Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing14/28, 117 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing25 CAR, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyjae SpearsReceiving2 REC, 28 YDS
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing23/42, 364 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Shedeur SandersRushing3 CAR, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving8 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:03Harold Fannin Jr. 7 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–29
- Q44:27Shedeur Sanders 7 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)31–23
- Q46:17Joey Slye 41 Yd Field Goal31–17
- Q49:29Chimere Dike 5 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)28–17
- Q30:51Tony Pollard 32 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)21–17
- Q22:47Jerry Jeudy 60 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–17
- Q214:24David Njoku 1 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–10
- Q11:29Tony Pollard 65 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)14–3
- Q11:42Andre Szmyt 38 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:52Elic Ayomanor 14 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:29Tony Pollard 65 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 14 – 3 CLE · TEN 48% → 67% +19TEN 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q214:24David Njoku 1 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)TEN 14 – 10 CLE · CLE 32% → 52% +20CLE 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q22:47Jerry Jeudy 60 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)TEN 14 – 17 CLE · CLE 48% → 71% +23CLE 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q30:51Tony Pollard 32 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 21 – 17 CLE · TEN 29% → 61% +33TEN 29% → 61%+33 pts
- Q49:29Chimere Dike 5 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 28 – 17 CLE · TEN 68% → 94% +26TEN 68% → 94%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML TEN +170 / CLE -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -187
- TEN +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 14.5 – 19.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 33.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1228 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | −27 | TEN: Cam Ward · CLE: Shedeur Sanders, usually Dillon Gabriel (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +169 Elo | CLE 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.2 | Points scored | 16.229th of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 22.514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−13.2 | Margin | −6.327th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.18 | Yards per play | 4.1632nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 4.613rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321541 | Opponent Elo | 150716th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321228 | Elo rating | 137427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.