San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing16/29, 168 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing20 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing16/25, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing23 CAR, 91 YDS
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving3 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:09Matt Gay 31 Yd Field Goal26–8
- Q411:05Jauan Jennings 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–8
- Q31:29Brock Purdy 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)17–8
- Q20:00Matt Gay 25 Yd Field Goal10–8
- Q20:39Harold Fannin Jr. 34 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Quinshon Judkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–8
- Q18:15Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)SF 7 – 0 CLE · SF 69% → 83% +14SF 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q20:39Harold Fannin Jr. 34 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Quinshon Judkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)SF 7 – 8 CLE · CLE 16% → 39% +23CLE 16% → 39%+23 pts
- Q20:00Matt Gay 25 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 8 CLE · SF 61% → 71% +10SF 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q31:29Brock Purdy 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)SF 17 – 8 CLE · SF 69% → 91% +22SF 69% → 91%+22 pts
- Q411:05Jauan Jennings 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)SF 23 – 8 CLE · SF 94% → >99% +5SF 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -5.5
- ML SF -250 / CLE +210
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -8.5
- SF 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- SF: Elo 77.5%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -229
- CLE +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 20.5 – 15.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +41 | −32 | SF: Brock Purdy · CLE: Shedeur Sanders, usually Dillon Gabriel (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +215 Elo | SF 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 76.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 69.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 16.929th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 22.212th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.7 | Margin | −5.325th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 4.1632nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.684th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 21st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 11th of 321567 | Elo rating | 138927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.