Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/29, 169 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing6 CAR, 38 YDS
- Rico DowdleReceiving4 REC, 36 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing23/32, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing24 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:21Matt Gay 29 Yd Field Goal9–20
- Q30:49Tetairoa McMillan 29 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–17
- Q34:42Christian McCaffrey 12 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)3–17
- Q21:00Matt Gay 47 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q22:28Ryan Fitzgerald 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q16:17Jauan Jennings 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:17Jauan Jennings 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matt Gay Kick)CAR 0 – 7 SF · SF 74% → 87% +13SF 74% → 87%+13 pts
- Q22:28Ryan Fitzgerald 25 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 7 SF · CAR 13% → 19% +6CAR 13% → 19%+6 pts
- Q21:00Matt Gay 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 10 SF · SF 80% → 87% +6SF 80% → 87%+6 pts
- Q34:42Christian McCaffrey 12 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)CAR 3 – 17 SF · SF 88% → 97% +9SF 88% → 97%+9 pts
- Q30:49Tetairoa McMillan 29 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CAR 9 – 17 SF · CAR 2% → 9% +7CAR 2% → 9%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SF -7.5
- ML CAR +300 / SF -360
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -9
- SF 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- SF: Elo 79.0%, market 75.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -317
- CAR +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 21.0 – 28.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +47 | CAR: Bryce Young · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +230 Elo | SF 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 79.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 76.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 23.714th of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 22.916th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.8 | Margin | +0.815th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.97 | Yards per play | 5.4713th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6524th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 12th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Opponent Elo | 150217th of 32 |
| 25th of 321402 | Elo rating | 155512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.