Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/36, 280 YDS, 4 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing14 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Mac JonesPassing33/39, 319 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing8 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving9 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:59George Kittle 13 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–26
- Q45:10Colby Parkinson 16 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)42–20
- Q410:04Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)35–20
- Q412:29Luke Farrell 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro PAT blocked)28–20
- Q32:39Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)28–14
- Q39:33Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–14
- Q23:15Jauan Jennings 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–7
- Q213:41Davis Allen 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)21–0
- Q15:34Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)14–0
- Q110:14Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:14Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 7 – 0 SF · LAR 68% → 82% +14LAR 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q15:34Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 14 – 0 SF · LAR 82% → 92% +10LAR 82% → 92%+10 pts
- Q39:33Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)LAR 21 – 14 SF · SF 5% → 16% +11SF 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q32:39Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 28 – 14 SF · LAR 86% → 97% +11LAR 86% → 97%+11 pts
- Q412:29Luke Farrell 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro PAT blocked)LAR 28 – 20 SF · SF 2% → 9% +8SF 2% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -6.5
- ML LAR -250 / SF +210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4.5
- LAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 65.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LAR -219
- SF +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 28.0 – 21.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | −79 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +113 Elo | LAR 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 68.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 21.625th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.9 | Points allowed | 20.99th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.3 | Margin | +0.715th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.85 | Yards per play | 5.3715th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4520th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 148722nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321617 | Elo rating | 155511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 3–2 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.