New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing15/24, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Taysom HillRushing4 CAR, 30 YDS
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/32, 281 YDS, 4 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing25 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:40Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)10–34
- Q35:14Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)10–27
- Q20:07Juwan Johnson 11 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)10–20
- Q26:25Puka Nacua 39 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)3–20
- Q27:50Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q211:28Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty PAT Failed)0–13
- Q16:18Tyler Higbee 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:18Tyler Higbee 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)NO 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 88% → 95% +7LAR 88% → 95%+7 pts
- Q211:28Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty PAT Failed)NO 0 – 13 LAR · LAR 94% → 98% +4LAR 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q26:25Puka Nacua 39 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)NO 3 – 20 LAR · LAR 96% → >99% +3LAR 96% → >99%+3 pts
- Q20:07Juwan Johnson 11 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 10 – 20 LAR · NO <1% → 4% +3NO <1% → 4%+3 pts
- Q35:14Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)NO 10 – 27 LAR · LAR 97% → >99% +3LAR 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -14.5
- ML NO +800 / LAR -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -16
- LAR 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAR: Elo 91.0%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- LAR -858
- NO +858 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 15.5 – 30.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −96 | +8 | NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +402 Elo | LAR 91.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 90.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 89.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 25.013th of 32 |
| 24th of 3226.1 | Points allowed | 16.73rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.1 | Margin | +8.34th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.65 | Yards per play | 5.887th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 4.664th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 10th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 151412th of 32 |
| 29th of 321349 | Elo rating | 16117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–2 LAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.