Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing31/45, 448 YDS, 3 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing19 CAR, 45 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving8 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing13/16, 175 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonRushing23 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving7 REC, 119 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:10Ryan Fitzgerald 28 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q40:16Zane Gonzalez 45 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q41:08Tetairoa McMillan 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Bryce Young Pass to Jalen Coker for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q42:43Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q30:58Ryan Fitzgerald 34 Yd Field Goal19–21
- Q312:04Xavier Legette 36 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q20:25Ryan Fitzgerald 29 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q21:41Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–21
- Q27:52Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–14
- Q13:33Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q15:25Tetairoa McMillan 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:33Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)CAR 7 – 7 ATL · ATL 45% → 64% +19ATL 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q42:43Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field GoalCAR 19 – 24 ATL · ATL 75% → 94% +19ATL 75% → 94%+19 pts
- Q41:08Tetairoa McMillan 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Bryce Young Pass to Jalen Coker for Two-Point Conversion)CAR 27 – 24 ATL · CAR <1% → 91% +90CAR <1% → 91%+90 pts
- Q40:16Zane Gonzalez 45 Yd Field GoalCAR 27 – 27 ATL · ATL <1% → 51% +51ATL <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT5:10Ryan Fitzgerald 28 Yd Field GoalCAR 30 – 27 ATL · CAR 45% → 70% +25CAR 45% → 70%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML CAR +190 / ATL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -193
- CAR +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 18.5 – 23.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −5 | CAR: Bryce Young · ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.7 | Points scored | 18.727th of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 23.216th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.5 | Margin | −4.624th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 5.3816th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1912th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 29th of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 151213th of 32 |
| 27th of 321383 | Elo rating | 139126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.