New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing19/27, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing22 CAR, 83 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving5 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing17/25, 124 YDS, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing18 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving5 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:20Juwan Johnson 30 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)17–7
- Q29:21Chris Olave 62 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)10–7
- Q12:52Blake Grupe 20 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:59Rico Dowdle 5 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:59Rico Dowdle 5 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)NO 0 – 7 CAR · CAR 69% → 83% +14CAR 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q12:52Blake Grupe 20 Yd Field GoalNO 3 – 7 CAR · NO 17% → 23% +6NO 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q29:21Chris Olave 62 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 10 – 7 CAR · NO 23% → 43% +19NO 23% → 43%+19 pts
- Q410:20Juwan Johnson 30 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 17 – 7 CAR · NO 60% → 90% +31NO 60% → 90%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -5.5
- ML NO +210 / CAR -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -9
- CAR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 77.9%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -229
- NO +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 16.5 – 22.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −86 | +5 | NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +219 Elo | CAR 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 76.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.3 | Points scored | 18.927th of 32 |
| 24th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 22.815th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−11.7 | Margin | −3.922nd of 32 |
| 30th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 4.9128th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5423rd of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 4th of 321538 | Opponent Elo | 147327th of 32 |
| 29th of 321343 | Elo rating | 143523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 1–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–1 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.