Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing18/29, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Gunnar HelmReceiving4 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing23/30, 295 YDS, 3 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing22 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Ricky PearsallReceiving6 REC, 96 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Eddy Pineiro 40 Yd Field Goal24–37
- Q45:33Tony Pollard 6 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)24–34
- Q49:28Eddy Pineiro 37 Yd Field Goal17–34
- Q414:16Jeffery Simmons 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)17–31
- Q32:10George Kittle 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–31
- Q312:54Jauan Jennings 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–24
- Q20:56Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q27:43Gunnar Helm 34 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)10–14
- Q213:03Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–14
- Q11:22Joey Slye 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:48Jauan Jennings 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:48Jauan Jennings 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)TEN 0 – 7 SF · SF 86% → 94% +8SF 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q213:03Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)TEN 3 – 14 SF · SF 90% → 96% +7SF 90% → 96%+7 pts
- Q27:43Gunnar Helm 34 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 10 – 14 SF · TEN 4% → 11% +7TEN 4% → 11%+7 pts
- Q20:56Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field GoalTEN 10 – 17 SF · SF 88% → 92% +5SF 88% → 92%+5 pts
- Q312:54Jauan Jennings 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)TEN 10 – 24 SF · SF 92% → 98% +6SF 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- SF -12.5
- ML TEN +625 / SF -950
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -17
- SF 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- SF: Elo 91.9%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -683
- TEN +683 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.0 – 28.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1249 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | +39 | TEN: Cam Ward · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +422 Elo | SF 91.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 85.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 90.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 87.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.5 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.5 | Points allowed | 20.710th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.0 | Margin | +2.913th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.21 | Yards per play | 5.3118th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5321st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–217th of 32 |
| 4th of 321532 | Opponent Elo | 148124th of 32 |
| 31st of 321249 | Elo rating | 15829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.