Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing23/29, 300 YDS, 2 TD
- Omarion HamptonRushing16 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving4 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/30, 244 YDS, 2 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing9 CAR, 34 YDS
- George PickensReceiving7 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:48Omarion Hampton 5 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)34–17
- Q48:57Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field Goal27–17
- Q311:51Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q20:19Justin Herbert 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–17
- Q28:08George Pickens 38 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–17
- Q29:45Ladd McConkey 25 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–10
- Q214:04Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q16:43Quentin Johnston 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q110:20Ryan Flournoy 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:20Ryan Flournoy 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)LAC 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 51% → 69% +18DAL 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q16:43Quentin Johnston 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 7 DAL · LAC 31% → 49% +18LAC 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q29:45Ladd McConkey 25 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 14 – 10 DAL · LAC 40% → 61% +21LAC 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q28:08George Pickens 38 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)LAC 14 – 17 DAL · DAL 38% → 60% +22DAL 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q20:19Justin Herbert 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 21 – 17 DAL · LAC 39% → 63% +24LAC 39% → 63%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML LAC -102 / DAL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- DAL 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 42.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -104
- LAC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 24.5 – 26.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +26 | LAC: Justin Herbert · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +54 Elo | LAC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 29.15th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 30.031st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.2 | Margin | −0.918th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 6.024th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0329th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–2–115th of 32 |
| 30th of 321463 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 32 |
| 14th of 321564 | Elo rating | 145321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.