Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing31/47, 376 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing17 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving6 REC, 121 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/34, 309 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing6 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:19Jahmyr Gibbs 13 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)30–44
- Q43:42Brandon Aubrey 29 Yd Field Goal30–37
- Q47:17Jahmyr Gibbs 10 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)27–37
- Q49:52Ryan Flournoy 42 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Jake Ferguson for Two-Point Conversion)27–30
- Q411:50Jake Bates 46 Yd Field Goal19–30
- Q32:49Brandon Aubrey 63 Yd Field Goal19–27
- Q310:41Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)16–27
- Q314:14Isaac TeSlaa 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)9–27
- Q20:00Jake Bates 47 Yd Field Goal9–20
- Q20:50Brandon Aubrey 55 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q24:27David Montgomery 35 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)6–17
- Q29:23Brandon Aubrey 42 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q12:14Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)3–10
- Q18:07Brandon Aubrey 57 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:46Jake Bates 38 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:14Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DAL 3 – 10 DET · DET 61% → 78% +17DET 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q24:27David Montgomery 35 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DAL 6 – 17 DET · DET 72% → 88% +16DET 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q314:14Isaac TeSlaa 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DAL 9 – 27 DET · DET 89% → 97% +8DET 89% → 97%+8 pts
- Q49:52Ryan Flournoy 42 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Jake Ferguson for Two-Point Conversion)DAL 27 – 30 DET · DAL 3% → 28% +24DAL 3% → 28%+24 pts
- Q47:17Jahmyr Gibbs 10 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DAL 27 – 37 DET · DET 74% → 97% +23DET 74% → 97%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DAL +154 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- DAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 26.0 – 29.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +29 | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +107 Elo | DET 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.3 | Points scored | 29.23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.5 | Points allowed | 22.815th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +6.36th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.06 | Yards per play | 6.112nd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1812th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–4–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15247th of 32 |
| 18th of 321510 | Elo rating | 16108th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.