Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing15/24, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing12 CAR, 34 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving4 REC, 66 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing23/38, 294 YDS
- Javonte WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving6 REC, 111 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:19Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal34–26
- Q41:08Will Reichard 53 Yd Field Goal34–23
- Q49:12Jalen Nailor 4 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)31–23
- Q31:12C.J. Ham 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)24–23
- Q34:50Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q311:14Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q20:03Brandon Aubrey 37 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q21:48Will Reichard 29 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q29:28J.J. McCarthy 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)14–14
- Q214:52Malik Davis 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–14
- Q12:35Jalen Nailor 20 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)7–7
- Q18:23Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:35Jalen Nailor 20 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 7 – 7 DAL · MIN 17% → 33% +15MIN 17% → 33%+15 pts
- Q214:52Malik Davis 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)MIN 7 – 14 DAL · DAL 67% → 83% +16DAL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q29:28J.J. McCarthy 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 14 DAL · MIN 17% → 34% +17MIN 17% → 34%+17 pts
- Q31:12C.J. Ham 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 24 – 23 DAL · MIN 16% → 45% +28MIN 16% → 45%+28 pts
- Q49:12Jalen Nailor 4 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 31 – 23 DAL · MIN 49% → 86% +38MIN 49% → 86%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML MIN +215 / DAL -265
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.2%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -222
- MIN +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.0 – 26.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −70 | +27 | MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +79 Elo | DAL 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 69.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.6 | Points scored | 29.34th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 29.731st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.0 | Margin | −0.418th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.92 | Yards per play | 6.014th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.90 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0129th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–4–115th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 4–1–17th of 32 |
| 7th of 321525 | Opponent Elo | 148824th of 32 |
| 16th of 321542 | Elo rating | 148820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.