Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing9/20, 78 YDS, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 52 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing16/23, 163 YDS, 3 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing14 CAR, 76 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:26T.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)0–31
- Q32:53Josh Oliver 6 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)0–24
- Q37:01Will Reichard 45 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q25:41Jordan Mason 8 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)0–14
- Q111:03Josh Oliver 18 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:03Josh Oliver 18 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)WSH 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 51% → 68% +17MIN 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q25:41Jordan Mason 8 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)WSH 0 – 14 MIN · MIN 72% → 88% +16MIN 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q37:01Will Reichard 45 Yd Field GoalWSH 0 – 17 MIN · MIN 93% → 96% +3MIN 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q32:53Josh Oliver 6 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)WSH 0 – 24 MIN · MIN 98% → >99% +2MIN 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q411:26T.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)WSH 0 – 31 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML WSH -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- WSH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.0 – 22.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | −79 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.8 | Points scored | 18.728th of 32 |
| 28th of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 23.418th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.1 | Margin | −4.824th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 4.9027th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.28 | Yards allowed per play | 4.947th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 1–428th of 32 |
| 11th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15373rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321432 | Elo rating | 149618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.