Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/28, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Woody MarksRushing19 CAR, 71 YDS
- Jayden HigginsReceiving2 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/32, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing6 CAR, 37 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving5 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:37Omarion Hampton 5 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker PAT Failed)20–16
- Q46:29Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q30:13Oronde Gadsden 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–10
- Q36:04Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q26:10Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q19:17Jaylin Noel 43 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–0
- Q113:20Jayden Higgins 75 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:20Jayden Higgins 75 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 LAC · HOU 49% → 66% +17HOU 49% → 66%+17 pts
- Q19:17Jaylin Noel 43 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 14 – 0 LAC · HOU 67% → 81% +15HOU 67% → 81%+15 pts
- Q30:13Oronde Gadsden 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)HOU 17 – 10 LAC · LAC 4% → 20% +15LAC 4% → 20%+15 pts
- Q46:29Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field GoalHOU 20 – 10 LAC · HOU 91% → 97% +6HOU 91% → 97%+6 pts
- Q43:37Omarion Hampton 5 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker PAT Failed)HOU 20 – 16 LAC · LAC <1% → 15% +15LAC <1% → 15%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML HOU -102 / LAC -118
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- LAC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 45.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -105
- HOU +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.5 – 21.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | +4 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +29 Elo | HOU 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3223.1 | Points scored | 23.316th of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.6 | Points allowed | 20.18th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.5 | Margin | +3.213th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.05 | Yards per play | 5.3617th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.029th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 11th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 145730th of 32 |
| 5th of 321648 | Elo rating | 159411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.