Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing27/40, 249 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Michael CarterRushing14 CAR, 56 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving12 REC, 134 YDS, 2 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing22/29, 260 YDS, 3 TD
- Jawhar JordanRushing15 CAR, 101 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving3 REC, 85 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:09Nico Collins 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)20–40
- Q411:01Michael Wilson 11 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–33
- Q413:34Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field Goal14–33
- Q30:33Trey McBride 20 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)14–30
- Q34:35Dalton Schultz 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–30
- Q21:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 22 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q29:01Ka'imi Fairbairn 55 Yd Field Goal7–20
- Q213:41Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)7–17
- Q16:12C.J. Stroud Aborted Snap C.J. Stroud Fumble Woody Marks 1 Yd Fumble Recovery (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–17
- Q112:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q114:11Nico Collins 57 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:11Nico Collins 57 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)ARI 0 – 7 HOU · HOU 83% → 92% +9HOU 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q112:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 10 HOU · HOU 92% → 94% +3HOU 92% → 94%+3 pts
- Q16:12C.J. Stroud Aborted Snap C.J. Stroud Fumble Woody Marks 1 Yd Fumble Recovery (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)ARI 0 – 17 HOU · HOU 94% → 98% +4HOU 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q213:41Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 7 – 17 HOU · ARI 2% → 6% +4ARI 2% → 6%+4 pts
- Q29:01Ka'imi Fairbairn 55 Yd Field GoalARI 7 – 20 HOU · HOU 94% → 96% +2HOU 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -10.5
- ML ARI +455 / HOU -625
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -12.5
- HOU 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 85.8%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -487
- ARI +487 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 16.0 – 26.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −18 | +16 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +312 Elo | HOU 85.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 84.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 83.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.7 | Points scored | 21.820th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 16.01st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−5.1 | Margin | +5.87th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.0026th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 4.644th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–213th of 32 |
| 6th of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 15305th of 32 |
| 24th of 321394 | Elo rating | 16365th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 3–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.