Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing22/31, 281 YDS, 3 TD
- Blake CorumRushing12 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing25/44, 271 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jacoby BrissettRushing4 CAR, 22 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving11 REC, 142 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:08Michael Wilson 14 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)45–17
- Q413:46Blake Corum 48 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)45–10
- Q30:12Puka Nacua 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)38–10
- Q310:09Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)31–10
- Q20:12Puka Nacua 28 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)24–10
- Q22:47Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)17–10
- Q28:34Chad Ryland 38 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q11:29Blake Corum 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–7
- Q17:40Harrison Mevis 26 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q112:05Michael Wilson 19 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:05Michael Wilson 19 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)LAR 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 21% → 36% +15ARI 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q17:40Harrison Mevis 26 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 7 ARI · LAR 62% → 69% +7LAR 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q11:29Blake Corum 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 10 – 7 ARI · LAR 67% → 83% +16LAR 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q22:47Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 17 – 10 ARI · LAR 73% → 89% +16LAR 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q20:12Puka Nacua 28 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 24 – 10 ARI · LAR 89% → 97% +8LAR 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -9.5
- ML LAR -485 / ARI +370
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -9
- LAR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 78.4%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- LAR -388
- ARI +388 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 29.5 – 20.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −21 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +224 Elo | LAR 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 77.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 79.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 22.120th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 25.324th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.3 | Margin | −3.222nd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.93 | Yards per play | 5.1422nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3719th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 151810th of 32 |
| 4th of 321643 | Elo rating | 141124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 3–1 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.