Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Teddy BridgewaterPassing8/15, 62 YDS
- Sean TuckerRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving3 REC, 32 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/35, 273 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 97 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q413:35Harrison Mevis 52 Yd Field Goal7–34
- Q21:02Harrison Mevis 40 Yd Field Goal7–31
- Q23:10Davante Adams 24 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–28
- Q25:03Tez Johnson 14 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–21
- Q210:46Colby Parkinson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–21
- Q11:42Cobie Durant 50 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–14
- Q14:32Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:32Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)TB 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 73% → 86% +13LAR 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q11:42Cobie Durant 50 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)TB 0 – 14 LAR · LAR 86% → 94% +8LAR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q210:46Colby Parkinson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)TB 0 – 21 LAR · LAR 95% → 98% +4LAR 95% → 98%+4 pts
- Q25:03Tez Johnson 14 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 21 LAR · TB 1% → 5% +4TB 1% → 5%+4 pts
- Q23:10Davante Adams 24 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)TB 7 – 28 LAR · LAR 95% → 99% +3LAR 95% → 99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -7.5
- ML TB +290 / LAR -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -7
- LAR 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 73.2%, market 75.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -303
- TB +303 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 21.5 – 29.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +8 | TB: Baker Mayfield · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +174 Elo | LAR 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 72.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 75.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.2 | Points scored | 27.26th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 17.22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +10.02nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 5.797th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.966th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 4th of 321534 | Opponent Elo | 15295th of 32 |
| 14th of 321523 | Elo rating | 16543rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.