Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing29/40, 301 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bam KnightRushing11 CAR, 62 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving8 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/28, 194 YDS, 1 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing17 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving3 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:58Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)17–20
- Q48:58Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q30:31Bam Knight 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)10–17
- Q33:56Bucky Irving 13 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)3–17
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 52 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:36Tristan Wirfs 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–10
- Q28:02Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:02Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 3 TB · TB 62% → 71% +9TB 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q21:36Tristan Wirfs 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ARI 0 – 10 TB · TB 71% → 88% +17TB 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q33:56Bucky Irving 13 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ARI 3 – 17 TB · TB 84% → 96% +12TB 84% → 96%+12 pts
- Q30:31Bam Knight 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 10 – 17 TB · ARI 3% → 14% +12ARI 3% → 14%+12 pts
- Q44:58Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 17 – 20 TB · ARI 1% → 22% +21ARI 1% → 22%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -4.5
- ML ARI +175 / TB -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -6
- TB 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- TB: Elo 69.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -189
- ARI +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 20.5 – 25.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −26 | — | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +144 Elo | TB 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 23.514th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 25.826th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.2 | Margin | −2.319th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.0922nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6725th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–518th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 15th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15404th of 32 |
| 24th of 321421 | Elo rating | 150319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.