Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing18/28, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Blake CorumRushing7 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Xavier SmithReceiving3 REC, 82 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/20, 206 YDS, 3 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing17 CAR, 83 YDS
- Jalen CokerReceiving4 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:34Tetairoa McMillan 43 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)28–31
- Q49:58Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)28–24
- Q38:48Jalen Coker 33 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–24
- Q21:55Blake Corum 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)21–17
- Q25:33Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q212:46Davante Adams 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)14–14
- Q11:10Mike Jackson 48 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–14
- Q17:38Chuba Hubbard 35 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–7
- Q112:10Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:46Davante Adams 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 14 – 14 CAR · LAR 59% → 77% +18LAR 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q21:55Blake Corum 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 21 – 17 CAR · LAR 65% → 84% +19LAR 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q38:48Jalen Coker 33 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)LAR 21 – 24 CAR · CAR 17% → 40% +23CAR 17% → 40%+23 pts
- Q49:58Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 28 – 24 CAR · LAR 46% → 84% +38LAR 46% → 84%+38 pts
- Q46:34Tetairoa McMillan 43 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)LAR 28 – 31 CAR · CAR 15% → 61% +46CAR 15% → 61%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -9.5
- ML LAR -600 / CAR +400
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -10
- LAR 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 80.9%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- LAR -428
- CAR +428 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 27.0 – 17.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1675 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +5 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +251 Elo | LAR 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 79.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 81.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 18.028th of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.3 | Points allowed | 22.413th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.5 | Margin | −4.424th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.81 | Yards per play | 5.0027th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5422nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 9th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 148125th of 32 |
| 1st of 321675 | Elo rating | 139126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.