Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing16/23, 201 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing24 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- Ashton JeantyReceiving1 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/35, 187 YDS, 1 TD
- Jawhar JordanRushing15 CAR, 53 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:24Ashton Jeanty 51 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)21–23
- Q47:41Dalton Schultz 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–23
- Q33:08Ka'imi Fairbairn 49 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q39:44Ashton Jeanty 60 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–13
- Q20:50Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q29:12Ka'imi Fairbairn 55 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q212:25Brock Bowers 7 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q110:43Derek Stingley Jr. 31 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:25Brock Bowers 7 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 7 HOU · LV 5% → 14% +9LV 5% → 14%+9 pts
- Q39:44Ashton Jeanty 60 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 14 – 13 HOU · LV 8% → 23% +15LV 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q33:08Ka'imi Fairbairn 49 Yd Field GoalLV 14 – 16 HOU · HOU 72% → 83% +10HOU 72% → 83%+10 pts
- Q47:41Dalton Schultz 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)LV 14 – 23 HOU · HOU 79% → 98% +19HOU 79% → 98%+19 pts
- Q45:24Ashton Jeanty 51 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 21 – 23 HOU · LV 1% → 21% +20LV 1% → 21%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- HOU -14.5
- ML LV +850 / HOU -1450
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -18
- HOU 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 92.8%, market 89.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -914
- LV +914 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 12.5 – 27.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1229 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +16 | LV: Geno Smith · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +445 Elo | HOU 92.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 91.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 90.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.0 | Points scored | 23.119th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.9 | Points allowed | 16.31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.9 | Margin | +6.84th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.38 | Yards per play | 5.0924th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 4.662nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 8th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 15326th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321229 | Elo rating | 16464th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.