Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kenny PickettPassing15/25, 64 YDS, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing9 CAR, 35 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving6 REC, 28 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing12/15, 175 YDS, 3 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing22 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- Dallas GoedertReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:54A.J. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–31
- Q34:52Dallas Goedert 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–24
- Q21:57Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)0–17
- Q212:49Jake Elliott 27 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:51Dallas Goedert 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Dallas Goedert 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LV 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 86% → 94% +8PHI 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q212:49Jake Elliott 27 Yd Field GoalLV 0 – 10 PHI · PHI 93% → 96% +2PHI 93% → 96%+2 pts
- Q21:57Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)LV 0 – 17 PHI · PHI 96% → 99% +3PHI 96% → 99%+3 pts
- Q34:52Dallas Goedert 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LV 0 – 24 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +1PHI >99% → >99%+1 pts
- Q414:54A.J. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LV 0 – 31 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -12.5
- ML LV +625 / PHI -950
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -17.5
- PHI 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 92.7%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -689
- LV +689 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 12.0 – 24.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1234 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −35 | +6 | LV: Kenny Pickett, usually Geno Smith · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +442 Elo | PHI 92.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 89.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 92.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 87.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.1 | Points scored | 22.219th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 20.89th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.5 | Margin | +1.414th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.53 | Yards per play | 5.2817th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2214th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 4–213th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15343rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321234 | Elo rating | 16008th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.