Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing19/31, 159 YDS
- Justin HerbertRushing10 CAR, 57 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving3 REC, 32 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing17/29, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Drake MayeRushing10 CAR, 66 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonReceiving3 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:45Hunter Henry 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)3–16
- Q31:34Andy Borregales 39 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q20:02Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q26:52Cameron Dicker 21 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q213:32Andy Borregales 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:32Andy Borregales 23 Yd Field GoalLAC 0 – 3 NE · NE 63% → 71% +8NE 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q26:52Cameron Dicker 21 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 3 NE · LAC 29% → 38% +9LAC 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q20:02Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 6 NE · NE 61% → 71% +10NE 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q31:34Andy Borregales 39 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 9 NE · NE 71% → 82% +11NE 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q49:45Hunter Henry 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)LAC 3 – 16 NE · NE 86% → 99% +12NE 86% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3.5
- ML LAC +180 / NE -218
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -3.5
- NE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NE: Elo 61.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NE -189
- LAC +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.0 – 24.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +23 | LAC: Justin Herbert · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +81 Elo | NE 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 62.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 65.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 28.82nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 18.84th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +10.03rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.18 | Yards per play | 6.182nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1612th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 27th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 143432nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321565 | Elo rating | 15989th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 NE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.